Probably, no one, except for Vladimir Nudelman, possesses a similar array of information about the urban development of Kyiv and Ukraine as a whole. He created a method of economic and geographic forecasting in district planning and town planning, based on the study of the potential of territories, participated in the development of master plans of Kyiv and many regional centers from the middle of the 2025th century. and at the present time. Today, the academician continues to conduct active work — consults, analyzes the capital's development strategy until XNUMX, writes articles for Ukrainian mass media. Naturally, finding out what awaits Ukrainian cities in the near future, we turned to the erudition and knowledge of the luminary of domestic urbanism.
Vladimir Nudelman
PRAGMATIKA.MEDIA: Kyiv, as it is today — with the transport collapse, unregulated development (including the historical center), few would call it a comfortable city for life. What, in your opinion, are the main mistakes of city planners and planners of the past? And are there among these "rake" mistakes that modern urbanists also make?
Vladimir Nudelman: Undoubtedly, it is difficult to call Kyiv comfortable today. And, I believe, this is a consequence of the fact that the master plans of Kyiv — starting with the old ones, from 1936 to the current one — were developed with an orientation towards power. And the government, if any proposals of the planners contradicted its interests, ignored them and did not implement them. It is possible to compile a whole collection of sound but not implemented plans for the development of the city. And the word "secret" on urban planning documents left citizens and business representatives the opportunity to influence the process — it did not allow citizens to plan their lives and economic activities. Everything obeyed departmental interests, ideological dogmas. Pre-war Kyiv, as I remember it, was filled with an atmosphere of happiness, it was an almost ideal city-garden. But the Second World War made adjustments. The post-war years and beyond, almost until the 1980s, were devoted to the development of industry — everything was subordinated to this main priority.
For example, dozens of dangerous enterprises were built in Kyiv, and in the event of a man-made catastrophe, the places of residence of two-thirds of Kyiv residents would be in the risk zone. However, all these global initiatives of the Soviet government, such as the "Development of Big Chemistry" project, affected not only the capital but the entire territory of Ukraine. Chemical enterprises were built in almost every regional center, even in Crimea. It is asked: why? It still sucks, remember the situation in Armyansk... (At the end of September and the beginning of August 2018, an excess of toxic industrial substances in the atmosphere was recorded in Armyansk and a number of settlements of the Kherson region on the border of the mainland with the Krym peninsula. Presumably, the cause of the environmental emergency could be production accident at the "Krymsky Titan" factory, where sulfuric acid is produced - ed.).
Kyiv turns into a chaotically developing settlement in which all conflicts are exacerbated
But let's return to the capital's problems. I have repeatedly emphasized the fact that according to the index of global competitiveness, Kyiv is inferior not even to capitals, but according to average indicators to settlements in countries such as Mexico or Indonesia. According to environmental indicators, our capital is in 26th place, in terms of quality of life it is lower than 130th... And so on. The road network is not developing, and the number of motor vehicles is steadily growing, especially in recent years. At the same time, even such a simple and obvious idea - the construction of intercepting parking lots near the final metro stations - is not implemented! We are on the brink of a transport collapse, the maximum allowable time spent on moving from home to work, for example, is 45 minutes — but most of the people of Kyiv today spend much more time on this.
Kyiv turns into a megalopolis, or rather, into a chaotically developing settlement, in which all social, economic and infrastructural conflicts are exacerbated. This is partly the consequence of the "inhumane" urban planning approach of the past, partly the result of the inaction of our government and elites already in the years of Ukraine's independence.
The current General Plan of Kyiv: planning structure. Image source: kga.gov.ua
In the Soviet past, there was such a megastructure as Gosplan, and each enterprise was strictly focused on the coordination of raw material flows and deliveries of finished products. Therefore, the developers of the General Plan always first requested statistical materials from the State Plan and, supplementing them with information from enterprises in the service sector, obtained the projected population size. This is the so-called labor balance technique. That is, the starting point was industry, its development and the number of people needed for service, and not the development of Kyiv as a city for people. This is the wrong approach - in calculations and forecasts, it is necessary to start from the interests of a person, his needs, natural conditions and the potential of the territory.
Today, urban planners are deprived of many tools and opportunities that their predecessors had: there are no accurate statistical data, enterprises are in private hands, and private entrepreneurs are not ready for long-term planning and focus on the current market situation, not knowing how it will change tomorrow. But today's designers have a unique opportunity to put human interests at the heart of planning and strive to create a human-centric model of the city of the future.
Current General Plan of Kyiv: roads and streets. Image source: kga.gov.ua
We have formed a gap between generations of urbanists. The cohort of those who gained enormous practical experience, both positive and negative, at the beginning and middle of the last century, generously shared it with the younger generation. But students who received their education in the 80s and 90s could not apply this knowledge in practice. Accordingly, they can only convey the theory. And most of the previous practicing teachers have already retired or retired. And today, young urbanists will inevitably fill cones, step on rakes, invent bicycles. There will be mistakes that are inevitable. We have to reckon with it.
PM: One of your concepts, which young urbanists are actively discussing again, is the creation of partner cities for Kyiv by transferring administrative, financial and other types of activities. Can you tell us more about this concept and why it could not be implemented?
V.N.: In the Soviet past, one of the mayors of Kyiv promised that we would turn "Merchant's Kyiv" into an advanced socialist industrial center. So they turned it. But the status of the capital does not imply such an industrial load. Kyiv is overloaded with enterprises, including not only industrial ones, but also administrative ones. Why is the Ministry of Agrarian Policy located in Khreshchatyk? Is that what increases milk yield? And many others are established. It would be logical to transfer the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry to the region where coal-mining enterprises are concentrated. By the way, in the middle of the XX century. it was located in Donetsk, where a separate building was erected for it in 1956. But then again Mynugly moved to Kyiv. Now, of course, it makes no sense to talk about such a transfer taking into account the military conflict. But it is possible to place the ego in the Dnieper. The Ministry of Temporarily Occupied Territories — what is it doing in Kyiv? Or the Ministry of Regional Development? In my publications, I have repeatedly written about the need for such displacements.
Modern urbanists may not invent any revolutionary theories, many of them have already been created. Howard, Le Corbusier, Tange - the last century gave us many models of the perfect city, and despite the fact that in any of the models you can find flaws, there is a healthy grain in each of them. For example, the architect-town planner Konstantinos Doxiadis formulated scientific justifications for the formation and dynamic development of human settlement back in the middle of the last century. He called to accept as a given that cities will inevitably increase until the entire surface of the planet merges into a single network of settlements, and predicted the development of cities-megalopolises in the form of ribbons along the main transport routes - from one node to another.
Today's designers have the opportunity to put human interests at the heart of planning
The territory of Ukraine is huge. I was and remain a supporter of the creation of double cities of the capital. In the eastern part of the country, the centers of the interregional level are uniformly located - Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporozhye, Odessa - large infrastructure facilities and universities are concentrated in them. But in the west, Lviv is located almost on the border, and Kyiv is too far to the north. And there are no large cities in the Kyiv — Lviv — Odesa triangle. That's why we saw Vinnytsia as a backup for the capital 20 years ago. And as you can see, our forecasts are coming true — the population of Vinnytsia is growing, the city is actively developing. The capital's backups must have not only modern airports and train stations, but also be ready to transfer administrative institutions to them, which would allow Kyiv to be unloaded.
Now, in the era of digitalization, there is no need for administrations or ministries to be physically located in the historical part of the capital, they can be located anywhere, and I hope that we, like in Europe, will soon solve all administrative issues remotely, online. After all, in some countries, even elections are already held by Internet voting...
PM: You called "localization of Kyiv-centricity; increasing the role of regional elites; anti-oligarchic consolidation of regional elites" as the basis of democratic renewal. But the impression is created that today the system is resisting this with all its might. Why the monocentric model of the state and the monocentric model of the capital only strengthen their positions? Is it possible to reverse this negative trend today, or is the moment missed?
V.N.: The human-centric principle of development undermines the interests of the so-called elites. And the only thing we can oppose to the system is the union of citizens and investors. The territory is the main limiting factor in the development of Kyiv. We need not to recompense the already critically built-up historical center of the city, but to conduct an audit of internal resources - inefficiently used land plots of industrial, transport, communal-storage, and military facilities. The only thing is that I would not rush to build housing on the territories of former harmful enterprises. Time must pass, and we must receive confirmation from scientists that industrial zones can be inhabited.
The current General Plan of Kyiv: a system of city-wide centers. Image source: kga.gov.ua
PM: Ten years ago, urbanists, including you, confidently said that Kyiv has every chance of becoming a link in the global urbanization axis "from London to Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Kyiv, Moscow and further to the Far East." Will the war and today's realities, when ties between Kyiv and Moscow seem to have been completely severed, radically change this concept? Taking into account today's realities, how would you conduct this urbanization axis?
V.N.: The term "European urbanization axis" was used by Doxiadis. According to his theory, this development passes through the center of Europe with branches to Odessa, Moscow and ends in Vladivostok. Kyiv occupies an important and favorable geographical position, which in the future will turn it into one of the main hubs on the international transport corridor.
When the era of Putin ends, it will be necessary to gradually restore relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine cannot move to another continent. And we will still look for points of contact and strive for good-neighborly relations, this is inevitable. The negativity that has accumulated in the relations between the states will not dissolve in a few years, rather it will take decades, but the process of future rapprochement is inevitable.
Kyiv is a precious land that will never become dry
PM: Recently, the Ukrainian Institute for the Future presented an analytical report "City 2030. Modernize or die." At the presentation, the participants, answering questions from the audience, gave, among other things, the following forecast: when Ukraine joins the EU, depopulation associated with mass migration (up to a third of the population) awaits our cities. This can lead to the fact that some of the depressed settlements will be completely deserted, and for example, run-down apartments, houses, and quarters will appear on the outskirts of Kyiv. How realistic do you think such a forecast is, and how can it be countered? And is it worth resisting?
V.N.: They will not empty. Precious land in Kyiv. Both the location and the potential of this territory - everything indicates that this land will never become dry.
Once I flew to the city of Aktau, not far from Mangyshlak, in Kazakhstan, on the shores of the Caspian Sea - there is a center for the development of oil and gas fields. The town was built in the early 1950s. around the Caspian mining and metallurgical plant, which processed uranium ore. Prisoners were employed in construction and production. When there was a discussion about the development of the city, I spoke and proved that it is necessary to develop settlements along the coast - this is a guarantee that people will settle here and not leave. What did the local district officials answer me: "Look, we have barbed wire and towers with machine guns - where will they go?"...
And it's good that Aktau was still planned in the coastal zone. Now it is slowly developing even as a resort. Time has changed — and now it is unrealistic to limit the freedom of choosing a place for settlement with the help of barbed wire. So it is with our cities - if the territory has development potential, it will always be populated. Part of the people of Kyiv will leave, others will come. There is no need to create any artificial barriers to natural migration, we live in the XXI century.
